2017 Reconciliation

Reconciliation

Each year there are players you hit on, who are called sleepers, and players you miss on.  It’s always a good idea to do a reconciliation, whether that be with your finances or your fantasy team.  Some names of note that I had higher than the crowd were Tre’Davious White, Adoree’ Jackson and Reshad Jones.  The players I questioned going into the season were Wesley Woodyard, Ramon Humber, and Jon Bostic.  Below I will show you the process and strategies that I implement when managing my fantasy teams.

It’s always better to review weekly finishes for players that you missed on and take notes on some of the pitfalls or narratives that you find yourself in throughout the season.  I don’t care much for the end of season (EOS) or pre-season ranks as I do week-to-week because performances from Julio Jones are heavily discounted at the EOS.  Why is this, because he may have scored a ton of points in few games that gave him relevance. I try to avoid boom or bust weekly players because I need them every week and I prefer to pair consistency with volatility.

Wesley Woodyard

Wesley Woodyard is a player that struggled the past two seasons in Tennessee.  I was considering his fantasy potential as dead-to-right in the format that I play in.  This being a start two linebackers and two defensive flexes for his potential play week-to-week in an auction league.  I spent most of my money on offensive players because they score higher, raising my overall score.

His best season was in 2012, where he finished with 73 solo tackles, 44 assisted tackles in 15 games! He became a Titan in 2014.  He had not finished with more than 54 tackles in the past three years and this lead me to believe he would lose potential tackles to Avery Williamson.  This season wasn’t in Williamson’s favor.  Woodyard is currently 31 years and poised for another great campaign in his 2018 season.

Wesley Woodyard finished the season seventh overall.  He collected 268 points and finished with these stats: 84 solo tackles, 40 assisted tackles, 5 sacks, 5 Pass Break Ups, 2 Fumble Recovery, 1 Touchdown

It makes me sick that I dropped him before the season even started for Preston Brown/Avery Williamson and a tough competitor picked him up after Week 1.  I want to give a big shout out to Joe Daugherty for beating me to the punch and trusting his gut!  He finished the season with these top 25 finishes:

Week 1 – 21st

Week 3 – 17th

Week 6 – 7th

Week 9 – 6th

Week 10 – 18th

Week 12 – 11th

Week 14 – 16th

Week 15 – 5th

Week 16 – 13th

Jon Bostic

I wrote off Jon Bostic because of his inability to be fantasy relevant on two previous teams; the Bears and the Patriots.  Bostic started the season with the Colts and has played on three teams by the age of 26. Most of his fantasy seasons are volatile and I discounted this for consistency.  Bostic finished the season at 42nd in his position.  His stat line includes 57 solo tackles, 40 assisted tackles, 1 sack, 3 pass break ups, and a fumble recovery.  He finished the season on IR and we could assume he would have placed higher.  In 2016, he collected 2 combined tackles – 1 solo and 1 assist in 11 games.  I considered him a career special teamer and expect the Colts to cut or replace him with one of their early draft picks.

His top 25 place finishes include:

Week 3 – 6th

Week 4 – 19th

Week 8 – 8th

Week 9 – 19th

His last fantasy relevant season was in 2014 with 83 combined tackles, no sacks, no interceptions, no fumble recoveries.  This stat line pretty much sums up my thoughts on him.

Ramon Humber

Humber has accrued 210 tackles in 9 seasons as a professional athlete. He finished outside of start-able linebackers in 2017 and 52nd overall.  Much like Bostic, he has played for 3 franchises but only finished three seasons with 16 games as a starter.  He is currently thirty years old and I expected Matt Milano to fill this position sometime during the season.  This was the case but both found playing time in many of the same games.  Humber ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at the combine, slower than most NFL linebackers.  The lack of production and slow 40 lead me to believe he would just be a flash in the pan.  Although he finished with a decent season, I stand firm on Humber as a situational, weekly start at best going forward.  In 2017, he finished with 160 points, 60 solo tackles, 29 assisted tackles, a sack, a pass break up and a forced fumble. Here are his top 25 weekly finishes for the year:

Week 1 – 9th

Week 2 – 16th

Week 3 – 21st

Week 10 – 12th

I noticed that Paul picked him up in a league that we both play in week 1 after Allen Robinson went down for the year.  Paul dropped him by week 5 when he fell out of fantasy relevance. Humber’s best season was in 2014 where he finished with 38 solo tackles, 12 assisted tackles and a sack in 13 games.

Lessons Learned

I’m not saying I knew where everyone would finish at their respective positions but I was not surprised by many players finishing at their floors or ceilings.  Floors are the lowest possible expectations whereas ceilings are their upper most fantasy expectations.  At the end of the day, you must trust the homework you put into these guys on a yearly basis.  I highly recommend our rookie scouting document or our Premium podcast if you are a dynasty fantasy football player.  Over the years you will start to index where these players stand, their potential and their tendencies.  The document will include measurables and all our notes throughout the off-season, leading up to the NFL draft.  Our Premium podcast breaks down tendencies and where we stand on these Individual Defensive Players in their respective positions.

-Buck